I get it. I’m a blogger and love traffic, so I know why there is so much activity around cryptocurrencies.
I spend hours every week researching hot niches in a quest for clicks and dollars. It’s what led me to start blogging about Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) back in 2014. You couldn’t watch TV without seeing a FanDuel or DraftKings commercial, and what good commercials they were too.
I can win a million dollars picking my favorite players and entering a $25 contest? Hell yes, take my money.
There were quite a few DFS blogs at that time.
Now it seems everyone is writing about cryptocurrencies, pretending to be an authority, so readers will come to their site, see their buy/sell predictions, and buy whatever product they are selling that will help you become the next crypto millionaire.
It’s so easy to get caught up in daydreams about this stuff. But you need to stop and think before following any advice, including anything mentioned in this article.
I started blogging about DFS, mostly focusing on how to build lineups to bump your odds of getting across the money line in whatever contests you entered, and DFS strategies (multi vs single entry, bankroll management, risk management, contest selection, etc.). Using the techniques that I detailed in my blog, I was able to get my win percentage to over 63% and was seeing consistent growth in my bankroll.
Then one night while I’m working my lineups with a bunch of my friends, I realized that DFS is just gambling with a pretty spin, and I was having to work a lot harder that I would if I just bet on games, and I’d probably win a shitload more money with a win percentage in the low 60's.
I also kept some stuff in my back pocket.
I’d written a sentiment analysis tool for MLB and NBA that tracked sports news and Twitter for anything related to the teams, weather, venues, player health, etc.
I created another tool that tracked the Vegas lines. The pro’s in Vegas make a living by being good prognosticators, but you have to carefully watch whats going on because they will trigger movements to pull money to one side or the other of a contest.
So by watching all these different variables, I was able to make informed decisions on stacks and swaps.
Did I share much of this info? Hell no.
Why not? Because the people that were reading my blog were my competitors.
So what does this have to do with Crypto?
Anyone that bought Bitcoin or Ethereum early made money, and some made a ton. Does this make them experts on the topic? No, it doesn’t.
That would be like saying I’m an expert stock picker because I moved my entire stock and mutual fund portfolio to cash in late February 2020, and moved everything back into index funds in late March 2020. That move nearly doubled my money.
Or like saying I’m capable an analyzing the movement of Bitcoin because I bought some when it crashed hard and is now back up in the $50k’ish range? No, it means I moved some cash around and took a HUGE risk that it was going to vanish.
Am I stock or cryptocurrency expert? Hell no, I’m a gambler that takes calculated risks.
And I know myself well enough that when I start getting the itch to pump a little more in that it is time to take everything off the table and cool down for a little while.
Rational heads win the day.
So what should you learn about crypto?
I am studying the technologies around crypto. I want to understand it as much as is possible. I’m taking free blockchain and FinTech classes on EdX because the info there is likely to be unbiased and based on research.
Learn what drives the supply and demand, underlying technology, use cases, and implementation. Knowing these things can help you identify cryptos that might be poised for movement.
BTW, no one can tell you the right time to buy and sell because if they knew, they would make more money doing it than talking about it.
The bottom line.
No one will sell a goose that lays golden eggs.
By all means read crypto blogs to learn more on the topic. But if someone tries to tell you, or sell you, buy/sell signals, make sure you have a solid understanding of the fundamentals before putting real money on the table.